15th march 2021 Nifty weekly analysis


In my last post I had stated following

Markets may have a pull back rally till around 15100 or so. However this most likely will be sold into and a downside of 14000 or so cannot be ruled out SUBSEQUENTLY.

Markets pulled back till 15330. But retraced all the gains very quickly. The medium term(for now) bearish view still remains.

Now this giving up all the gains in a single session becomes very significant as far as the wave count is concerned. The following chart wave count is of importance


The labelling of the top as 5 or 1 of 5 is of lot of significance. I still will not discount the bullish angle totally. However the LIKELY forthcoming scenerio is that the markets will first fall to 14000-14400 range.  But this fall will not come in a straight line but with lot of volatility(ups and down). For monday the markets will try to be bought into but will not sustain longer than one or two days.
Above weekly bearish scenerio will be discounted only when the markets rise above the friday high of 15330 and stay there for atleast a day.

The high volatility of recent days is captured in the chart below with the clear wave marking



Above analysis is based on elliot wave projections and theory. This theory is highly subjective(different people get different results.) Please consult your own certified financial consultant for the fundamentals of the markets before deploying your money.

However Elliot wave theory works on a principal of high probability.