MARKET SYNOPSIS

Nifty has shown remarkable tenacity. It did go down to 11100 levels but had a v shape recovery. Such recoveries , should be seen as part of the reverse head and shoulder pattern unless proven otherwise.
We may see continued volatility between levels of 11700 and 12100 . If these levels are maintained however , the whole pattern may be part of a larger bullish design.

Crude and USD both showing oversupply(see below writeup), may go down favouring the Indian economy.

Best would be to have both scenerios in mind.

  1. Markets keeping above 11700 till end june 1st week of july. This may bring about a bullish scenerio commencing somewhere around 2nd week july
  2. Markets falling below 11700. In this case markets will go down to 11ooo levels. (In all possibility we will not see levels below 11000)

Dow Jones

With trade war on multiple fronts , previously with China and now tarrif hikes with Mexico, volatility may continue in the us markets. On the technical charts the present rise may end anytime soon as a form of expanded triangle and the us markets may go down again to complete the inverse head and shoulder pattern. In this volatility usd may go down due to near term economic isolation. Crude and usd both dipping may help the indian economy in the near future.

Crude

Crude oil has been on an upward trajectory, but we are seeing a gradual slowdown in buying, which points towards a correction in prices.
Russia may step up production to utilize its resources. Together with the world economic slowdown, demand for oil may go down. This will suppress prices further with increased oil inventory.e

The technical charts seem to be showing the same scenerio

 

USD
Asean+3 is considering adding yuan and yen to their regional forex reserves pool safety net
Analysts say shift to reduce US dollar dominance is underpinned by expectations that trade war will cause shift in consumption and investment patterns away from globalisation.
Recently China and Russia trying to jumpstart a system independent of the USD.
The demand for usd subsequently will go down , pushing the USD down.
This is also reflected in the USD/INR chart
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