NIFTY
BANK NIFTY
Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY with Geopolitical Context
Elliott Wave Analysis
1. Wave 3 Completion in September 2024:
• The peak observed in September 2024 aligns with the completion of Primary Wave 3, marking a significant high driven by strong economic momentum and optimism in corporate earnings.
2. Wave A Formation in November 2024:
• The sharp correction seen into November 2024 corresponds to Primary Wave A, the first leg of the corrective phase.
• This phase reflects profit-taking, global risk aversion, and rising fears of recession triggered by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
3. Upcoming Wave B (Countertrend Rally):
• Wave B, an upward corrective wave, is expected to commence shortly, retracing a portion of Wave A.
• This UPCOMING rally will likely face resistance from negative global sentiment and rising oil prices.
4. Next Phase: Wave C Downward:
• Once Wave B completes, Primary Wave C will likely resume the downward corrective trend,
• This final leg of correction may unfold if geopolitical tensions worsen or global economic conditions deteriorate further.Elliott Wave Analysis of NIFTY with Geopolitical Context
Fundamental Background
The recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, marked by the United States supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles capable of striking Russian territory, has increased geopolitical uncertainties. Such developments have led to heightened volatility in global markets, including India. The following factors are shaping NIFTY’s performance:
1. Geopolitical Risks:
• Prolonged war and its potential to disrupt global energy and commodity markets have raised concerns about inflationary pressures.
• India’s economic stability provides some cushion, but its markets remain sensitive to global risk-off sentiment.
2. Domestic Factors:
• India’s robust economic growth, and government reforms lend fundamental support to NIFTY.