Nifty showing strength and should move higher on subdivided wave 3.
Have given a invalidation level of 15467 on the lower side, breaking of which will mean some more correction/consolidation.
Disclaimer Above analysis is based on elliot wave counts which are highly subjective. Different analysts may get different results. Please use your own judgement after assessing fundamentals with your own investment advisor,in all your investments.
NASDAQ
Market tops are always difficult to pin point and can at times take for ever. However one needs to take due notice every time a possible wave count points towards the same. Analysis should be taken more as a risk assessment rather than exact timing of the markets up and down gyrations.
The 5th and final wave in Nasdaq may be finishing in a 5 wave diagonal movement, where all 5 waves are overlapping and final level of the projected ending for the 5th wave is exactly as per elliot rules or .62 percent of the height of wave 1 and wave 3 combined.
Can the markets on reaching the above level strike out on a 5th wave bull run. POSSIBLE but 1st it will need to correct a percentage of the whole diagonal height. (Wave 1 and wave 2 of the new bull run)
This presently looks unlikely .
DOW JONES
Dowjones too is showing signs of topping out. Below I am giving two charts with possible targets. Both are very much possible.
In this the diagonal is that of a wave c , which can take the markets higher than the previous high BUT within the bearish ambit.(Or big possible correction from there.
There is a second alternative where dow jones will go much higher , assuming a LATE completion of wave 5 as shown below
So this 2nd alternative target is still 5 percent away.
The wave analysis is there to bring into focus the risks involved and to help in risk assessment.
Gold is on a bull run with the MAIN 3rd wave on. We can have a substantial run up, but of course with intermittent corrections.
INVALIDATION LEVEL 1858
In case gold touches a level lower than 1858, the above wave count is invalidated and gold may correct lower.
US DOLLAR INDEX
I have , previously talked about the weakness in usd . This weakness will be continued and usd expected to fall over the coming weeks.
Synopsis
Markets showing the last wave up (In case of nifty a 5th wave bull run and in case of the us markets , topping out . ) This last bit can take the markets 5-8 percent higher. The idea of doing wave analysis is to have a proper risk assessment (which helps us to deploy the correct quantum of investment)
USD continues to show weakness and gold and silver strength.(Notwithstanding sporadic corrections on the way)
Disclaimer Above analysis is based on elliot wave counts which are highly subjective. Different analysts may get different results. Please use your own judgement after assessing fundamentals with your own investment advisor,in all your investments.