Any investment  made on the below analysis is entirely at your own risk. Our analysis to be used for information and educational purpose only

IN CASE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN ANALYSIS THE NEXT DAY, THERE IS NO UPDATION.

WEEKLY UPDATE

16^th april

In our last update we turned our analysis to bullish from bearish. However we also said that currently the markets are in a overbought condition and should correct.

The markets duly corrected . The correction most probably is not over. In the 30 minute chart below we can see the short term correction set up.

The markets are on a strong bull run. Howeverin this bull run we are presently in a short term correction.

Updated 12^th april 2010

The analysis is back after a long hiatus. The reason for this was personal and we would try to be more punctual from now on.

A lot has happened since our last update. Certainly the markets have shown resilience. Also the upmoves have been marked by impulsive structure which cannot be denied.

In the chart below we have marked the impulsive structures as they occurred. The downward corrections have been marked in red. This leads us to think that the markets may have seen the low in jan 2009 as a clear bottom.

Presently the weekly MACD is in a buying mode. The 30 minute RSI is in a negative divergence. The present wave is an impulsive wave which may have finished on Thursday. So right now the correction should come but this correction to be seen as a part of an ongoing bull run.

Our premise of a bull run is further strengthened by Leading economic indicators. These are certainly not in fall mode but are steady and inching upwards.

In summary following points lead us to a bull run

1.      Clear impulsive waves from jan 2009 low.

2.      LEI inching upwards

3.      MACD on weekly basis is giving buy mode.

Caution  Although we have given a possible bull run scenario , presently we are in overbought condition and the markets will correct now.

Updated 8^th FEB 2010

The markets around the world are falling in tandem and the Indian Markets are no exception. The present fall is part of a five wave rally of the larger wave A of ABC fall. This 5 wave rally may be finishing off and we may have a temporary pop up.

As the fall from the jan 2008 was a zigzag we expect the present fall to be more of a flat. This flat as the markets unfold will be progressively more predictable.

In any case we expect the markets to correct at least up to 4300 levels in the medium term.

25^th jan

CAUTION CAUTION

In our last update we had given an upside for the markets to complete wave B. However breaking of the trendline line and the previous wavecount indicates that the top is now made and the markets should move significantly in a down trend now.

The wave count shown below indicates a massive move down. This is also indicated by the unlimiting triangle whose apex just touches the downward move.

29^th dec

The markets have shown resilience at the touch points of the lower channel as shown below. The corrective wave up is bound to go higher. We have to take the extended c wave into consideration, the c wave just having started can go up to 5800 or even higher at 6600. however the time frame for this upmove cannot be ascertained presently.

In the short term the markets can take minor corrections but over longer term the most preferred count is giving the upside as described above.

23^rd nov

The chart below of the nifty shows a probable rise upto around 5500 levels. The almost sudden rise gives rise to the suspicion of a expanding triangle being made for completing the major C wave.

5500 also comes in line with the wave B after the 2008 jan fall.

Although the markets continue to rise , we call this a  corrective rise (corrective bull market?) Anyway on Friday we had a engulfing bullish line which should take the markets up on sheer momentum after the possible initial hiccup.

      21^st oct

The markets may have made a 5^th wave completion for the c wave . If this is true then our target of 5200 plus may not be reached. The short term top of 5180 may hold and the markets should head downward from here.

      15^th oct

The corrective wave up is extending . the nearest target for this upmove is now 5240. once levels of 5240-5300 are reached we can review the wave count.

      5^th oct

Caution

The top has probably completed or very near to completion with the c wave of the corrective B wave. This would mean that the markets should turn down anytime soon as a massive C wave.

The high made recently should not be breached again.

      10th sep

The count has changed slightly to ab ab pattern where the c wave is going up . this c wave can go up as far as 5000-5200 band.

CAUTION

The price action of last few days is showing a top formation. This top formation is taking the shape of an ABCDE triangle , out of which the wave E is now in progress. This would mean that our original target of 5200 will not be met.

The wave E can however take the markets to around 4800 levels or even 4850. The fall when it comes should be very steep if this count is correct.

      24^th Aug

Our previous target of 5200 still remains in force. The markets should move to our target , but with volatility.

      13^th Aug

The markets took a distinctive support at the 30 day moving average which came at around 4400.

The upside target still remains around 5200. however we may have resistance at 4700.

ALERT ALERT

      3rd AUG

We had given our 1^st alert on 16^th july regarding a huge upmove. This is to repeat that this upmove is not finished and we should see more upswings.

The upmove should be a fast one and should have large impulsive moves. The immediate target is 5200-5300 with resistance at 4700.

ALERT

      20th july

As per our previous update a month ago we had cautioned against the markets falling to 3800. The markets did fall to 3900.

We are now giving an alert since last two days that the markets may be going up on a second abc wave which can take the markets to 5200-5400- levels.

ALERT

      16^th july

The last two days spectacular rise gives doubts on the previous count and raises the possibility of an alternate count.

In this count the rise is still corrective but will take the markets much higher. The rise , if this count is correct will be as forceful as the previous rise from march.

However confirmation of this will be only when the markets close convincingly above 4350.

      13^th july

The markets continue to move down. Will the markets test the oct lows or will it take a support from 3600-3800 levels.

Consider the following. The upmove  from march has been almost in a straight line. This has been historically one of the biggest moves and by its very nature (looks like a 3 wave move) puts the bullish scenario into doubt.

It will be worthwhile to discuss the usa and the Baltic index in this regard. The usa markets, if our count is correct should move into a major downturn shortly. The very fact that Obama has talked about a 2^nd stimulus packet, is bearish in its own way.

We are not advocating a certain doom for the Indian markets. All we are saying is that it is best to be cautious and take the markets as they come. We must see the 3600-3800 support levels very carefully. And be bearish in our minds until proven otherwise.

      9^th july

The markets continue to move down as predicted. This is the 1^st wave or the A wave and by the patterns made on the 30 minute chart it looks as if it is going to last longer.

This would mean a longer/bigger cut. However it is best not to have any target now until we have more price action.

      7^th july

The markets behaved exactly the way we predicted.

We gave our 1^st caution on 8^th june (pl see below)  When the tv channels were giving bullish predictions we stuck to our cautionary approach.

The markets now are dangerously poised. Near term target is 3800. However markets can retrace on intraday volatility.

      6^th july

CAUTION

The markets seem to be forming a wave e of the top which can go up to 4550 or even higher. The retracement down which if it comes will be confirmed below 4300. if markets close below 4300 the target down remains 3800 or even lower.

      1^st july

CAUTION

The markets as warned since 8^th june may have formed a top and now should come retracemnt of the rally.

We have changed the wave count but the bearish outlook remains. Rather with this wave count the bearish outlook becomes more acute.

      29^th june

In our previous update we had mentioned that the markets will fall- and they did. The down rally took us down to 4161.

Has the downside finished and will the markets again start on their bullish rally again. It is our contention that the downside is not finished yet. The current rally up can be taken as part of the ABC move. The present move up is the wave b. The Fibonacci level for the wave b comes at 4500.

However the markets have taken a very strong support at the 34 day moving average. This by itself is very bullish for the short to medium term. Therefore it will be prudent to see how the markets behave at the 4500 levels.

      15^th june

CAUTION

As said in our previous update, we may have made the top or in the process. Certainly it does not warrant any fresh buying.

The down rally when it comes should take us down to at least 3800.

    Dated 8^th June

CAUTION

The present rally may be forming a top. In any case we do not see too much upside . The correction when it comes will move in a medium band sideways.

    Dated 1^st June

In our last update of 22^nd may, we had drawn a green channel which the market should follow going upwards. The green channel still valid and has rather proved to be very accurate. We foresee the markets going to 5000 plus in the june rally.

However in case this rally fails in the middle then the markets must move sideways for a few days giving a clear indication of rally top being reached.

    Dated 22^nd May

We still have some more correction to go before the 4^th wave of the C wave is finished. The should start the 5^th wave upwards.of the c wave

    Dated 21^st May

We should have more sideways movement within the channel shown before the push upward. The markets can correct to around 4100-4150.

However the underlying momentum remains bullish for the time being. At lower levels buying will come.

The target remains at 4800 after the present correction is over which translates itself into the 4^th wave of the C wave.

Analysis for opening on 20^th may

19^th was a rest day for the markets. The underlying momentum is still there . We may however have a sideways movement for some time drawing out the no. 4 wave of the C wave.

The current move upward may be a B wave of the whole fall from jan 2008. If this is true then the upside can be upto 4800 in the days to come. No. 4 wave may also then be a running correction.

If the above contention comes true then we can have the start of the downward trend from around 4800.

For the present it is best to follow the markets rather than be in front of it.

Analysis for 19^th may

First time history we have an upper circuit. The emotions are running high. For some , they have missed the bus, For others they are on the wrong side and the remaining are euphoric at least on paper.

We don’t need Elliot wave to tell us that the present move is dangerous and it is best to keep out of the markets(as if we have a choice, what with upper circuit norm of the day) logically we should have a lower circuit in the coming days. So best is to ride out this storm and wait for calm to prevail.

On the Elliot perspective, as we have been saying from before any correction of this rally of about 40 percent (whenever it comes should be used for accumulating for the long term.) The no. 1 waves do not move with upper circuits. Therefore the current move has to be a C wave of the X wave and we should have the counter trend coming in when the x wave is completed.

Normally vertical moves like this end suddenly. So watch out although we can have another upmove today due to short covering.

Analysis for 13^th may

The markets took support from the lower side of the channel and looks like five clear waves, the 5^th one now unfolding..

The stupendous rise of yesterday will probably result in more momentum and then a side ways movement .

Our target is again modified to 4000.

Analysis for 11^th may

We have changed the wave count slightly making the completion of c within the 3800 -4000 range.

Once the c wave is completed we should have the correction downwards. We have shown the idealistic correction pattern. The actual pattern may of course differ from this

The sideways movement should last till at least sep. 09 as shown above.

Disclaimer

Any investment  made on the above analysis is entirely at your own risk. Our analysis to be used for information and educational purpose only